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11/29/2014 2:06:56 AM
5
If you flip a coin 1,000 times and it come up heads all 1,000 times, do you know what the probability of it landing of heads the 1,001st time? 50%. You're argument has some good math behind it but is ultimately invalid.
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Ya and multiple 0.5^1001 and thats the chance of it being heads all 1001 times....his argument is vaild.
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Except it isn't. Any time you flip a coin it can land on heads with a 50% chance. How many times its flipped matters not.
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It's simple statistics. The chances of it happening once is 50%. The chance of it happening x amount of times in a row is 50%^x.
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You are talking about the probability of it being heads or tails for a coin. He (to put it to your analogy) is saying the probability of the coin landing on tails 1000 time in a row is just highly improbable. Read a little closer. Your statement is right but doesn't negate his. Read a little closer.
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[quote]If you flip a coin 1,000 times and it come up heads all 1,000 times, do you know what the probability of it landing of heads the 1,001st time? 50%. You're argument has some good math behind it but is ultimately invalid.[/quote] Fact!
