The assumption is 1 point equals ~0.1% increase because its 1000 points to guarantee it. This is also based on it beginning at a 0% drop chance, which while unlikely, may be how they've done it given its supposed to be rare; they haven't given any base line percentage so for the math - The point-per-win breakdown is: Wins between 10000 and 10999 – 1 point Wins between 11000 – 11999 – 2 points Wins between 12000 – 12999 – 3 points Wins between 13000 – 13999 – 5 points Wins between 14000 – 14999 – 10 points Wins while at 15000 – 100 points With 103 points, you'd be at 10.3% chance of dropping and an approx drop of 1 in 9.71 (rounded). You'd need to have a bunch of people, all hitting the same issue, closer to the 1000 point mark before Bungie would look into it. [quote]as this seems statistically very unlikely.[/quote] There will always be statistical outliers, that's why its a guaranteed drop at 1000 points. Some will get it their first win, others will need to hit the full 1000 points.