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4/24/2025 4:53:51 PM
21

Why a 50% win ratio is the wrong goal in comp

I agree

79

I do not agree

13

I do not understand

12

Assembling mm teams with the goal of giving all players a 50% win rate, is a fine goal in a general playlist of mixed skill players, but in a ranked playlist it is foundationally contrary to the concept of rank. These should be the goals of a ranked matchmaking system 1. Rank should be a shorthand way to express skill on a fixed scale. 2. Correct rank should be assigned as quickly as it can be determined. 3. By playing with players of similar skill, players can improve, by learning how other players beat them, and observing which strategies are effective. If the goal is for rank to be an expression of skill, it should not require a long arduous grind to achieve, it should be very fluid, if youre having a great day you should climb fast, likewise if you are having a bad day you should fall fast. Problem A top 1% player doesnt engage with comp at the beginning of a season, they come into their placement matches and demolish all of their opponents, in every placement match. They are placed at a capped rank below adept. The system from then on matches them with the goal of achieving a 50% win ratio. To accomplish this, the system has to give them what it knows to be lower skilled teammates in a similar rank range. Because most players of top 1% skill have already grinded out of gold and plat lobbies, this player gets bottom tier teammates and top tier opponents which results in a 50% win ratio, which traps this player in a lower rank. This isnt fun for the skilled player who gets matched with people who trickle into 1v3's all game and go vastly negative, and it isnt fun for opposing teams who have a player on the other team they always lose to. This happens because teams are made with the goal of 50% win ratio. Not with the goal of expressing skill as soon as it can be determined and adjusting frequently. The purpose of a 50% win ratio is to waste player time. Solution Start placement matches with the highest ranked opponents, and only progress to lower ranks during placements when they fail to perform. Do not put an artificial cap on max rank after placement matches. Do not attempt to achieve 50% win ratios via matchmaking in a ranked playlist. Instead try to match players of similar rank, and adjust rank quickly so that players are facing their peers most of the time. Rant I am sick to death of being a mid tier player, and despite the years of fps's and hundreds of hours in this game and specifically comp, I am truly mid, but I am sick to death of being the best person on my team. I never quit a game in comp bc I want to climb to the higher ranks, I care about my rank, it is a long term pursuit for me to improve. And yet I get on my team all the time, people who quit early, even when we are winning the first few engagements, people who do nothing but run at the enemies, trickling in to 1v3 deaths again and again, a behavior that I never do, and that should be punished by the ranking system very quickly so they are ranked below people who have the wherewithal to move with their team. I also play against people who are in the top 0.01% on trials.report, why are they in gold? I shouldnt see a player like that until I am in the ascendant ranks. I certainly shouldnt see them over and over again. Because the goal of this system is to waste player time to increase engagement, they make the user experience bad to obfuscate this. They do not show the system evaluation of each teams skill level, they do not show the current rank of players in the postgame stats screen, they do not show the +- to rank given to players in the post game stat screen. And the reason for all these is very obvious, if they did, someone would crunch the numbers in the api and the community would be up at arms complaining with aggregate data rather than first hand accounts, that players are deliberately not ranked by skill, but rather subjected to a frustrating matchmaker picks winners system. Think of this in terms of sports. Should the 94 bulls have a 50% win ratio? Should Micheal Jordan not get to play with his team mates and instead get some high school player on his team when he plays the wizards? No of course not, Jordan should win every time he is the best player on the best team. For all its flaws, if you go to Halo Infinite, so many of these problems are solved, if you go back as far as halo 2, you can see these problems solved by bungie. Halo infinite, shows the rank of every player, it shows the relative ranks of both teams, and you can see very clearly the raltionship between player skill, player rank, and what it is like to play that player in game. If Im geting wrecked and then I see that the player that I just couldnt beat is onyx (the top rank) I immediately think ok I get it I have to improve. And what you never see in halo ranked, despite it having a much lower player population than destiny, is a game where an onyx player is in a silver lobby, they place them in onyx, because the goal is to rank people correctly, not trap them in a frustrating grind. They also end games when someone quits in the first minute of a match, which saves you the frustration of being unable to quit bc its a higher rank penalty, and escalates your timeout penalty, so youre forced to suffer a lopsided defeat for 5-10 minutes. There is no reason for this. There is no player benefit to these design decisions. This is artifical inflation of engagement numbers, by making people angry, and it leads to all sorts of bad player behavior. This is not a solvable problem, this is a solved problem 20 years ago. The fact that I have to wait through 3 seconds of crucible rep, 3 seconds of gunsmith rep, 3 seconds of a glimmer popup, none of which I care at all about, before I can see the +- to my rank is egregiously poor design. The fact that I cant see team skill cratings, or the rank of anyone in the match in the post game is offensive. The fact that top tier players are trapped in lower ranks subverts the entire purpose of having a rank. If my rank is not an expression of my skill relative to the entire playerbase, if spending the effort to improve, acquire and use a meta loadout, play smart, results in me being punished with team mates palced on my team purposfully to make me lose, then what is the point? The long term result is what you see, people dont like comp, they dont feel that ranks are accurate, they dont feel that teams are made in a way that fosters competition and player development, they are universally at all skill levels, frustrated to the point that they avoid the playlist or leave the game. Not even bungie is served by this. It is an abject failure. And as someone with thousands of hours, and hundreds of dollars, in this game, who loves it and wants to put in the time and the effort to grow and improve, it is just deeply disappointing, frustrating, demoralizing, and frankly insulting that you are not listening. You are not making it better, you are not even trying to serve the community, you continue prioritizing short term metrics over long term health, you are not listening, and every time you say you are, it is so obviously a lie.

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  • Here's the trouble Most competitive devs don't have the agency to give a proper ranked ladder anymore. In most video games, matchmaking is considered part of player retention, and as such, part of revenue. So decisions about that have to be run past suits who care more about money than the competitive integrity of the game. You see this happening everywhere right now. The only games that have genuine ranked ladders to climb anymore are fighting games, which are inherently anti-casual. By skewing the matchmaking to make it better for those casual players you aren't keeping any players you wouldn't have otherwise had. But you can keep players that way in shooter games. The forced 50/50 winloss works for keeping casuals in games like destiny. Of course, at the expense of players like us who actually care. But we're gonna keep playing anyways in most cases. And even if we don't, we've already spent our money on the game. Player retention means less for us than it does for someone who just fresh installed.

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    • Well written....there are still people who are not believing that the 50% ratio exits....yet all game modes I have played so far are around 50% win ratio...and I have wasted 7k hours in 10 years into pvp

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      • Edited by I am kevin: 4/25/2025 8:58:37 AM
        First it’s not a 50/50 win rate basted system there is a sbmm in place where you will match better and better teams composition that will make you lost at one point but a clear example of this is panduh road to acendent. I was also interested in the 50/50 win rate theory. Because I tought it might be a thing. But clearly after watching him reach the emblem I realized I am just avrg that’s why I lose so much. And maybe it’s a system that sometimes help you with players on a team and sometimes is against you if you win to much. But I was curious in seeing one of the top end players play the whole journey and see if wil effect them. But he had a 81% win rate after reaching the 15000k so that clearly indicates that there are systems in place but it’s not a force 50/50 win rate. But I do agree that there are systems in place that will keep you from having a 100% win rate. Destiny competitive mode is build upon combat rating system. What you’re asking for is way to much of resource to put into a playlist even destiny pvp players avoid. I think like only 0.08% of players reach high end competitive aka the players base is just not interested. This means it’s not because of mm systems in place there simply not engaged with the content. Now on the second point because Bungie works with there combat rating system (cr) they only way to improve is let the players simply show there combat rating and when they want to improve that rating play against players with a higher rating. Now the issue with this is. Way to making ppl will be mad when they see there cr rating. The numbers are around 500 to 2500 and only a select few are in the 2200 and up. Also this would ask bungie if they will make a system in place that will adjust there cr rating this will cost way to much revenue for a free to play playlist. Wich players are not engage in. Adjusting your combats rating is nearly impossible in destiny. I have friends who are in the 2100 and up range and they can’t even find or play qp because the game constantly reminds them that there so highly skilled that each qp match is a 1 v 6. Now they have tryde lowering there cr rating and bungie apperntly doenst want this. Even going so far as losing 25 games in a row with negative kd the number won’t even go down by a single decimal number. So this incline me to believe Bungie doenst care about improvement of the player why should you. Just for clarification here is a example of how I think it works This is pure theoretical and not actually the numbers use but pure to illustrate the mathematical stuff behind competitive matchmaking: Acendent players (cr score 160/220) Adept players (110/160) Platinum players (80/110) For example Team 1 player 1 is cr 200 Player 2 is cr 140 Player 3 is cr 90 Team 2 Player 4 is cr 140 Player 5 is cr 110 Player 6 is cr 110 If all players play in platinum. The match will be decided as follows T1, player 1/6/3 this accounting balance team. T2, player 2/4/5 this,, ,,, ,, ,, According to this ballance team 1 is a total of 400 cr score Team 2 has a total of 390 cr score. So bungie says the outcome of the match will be 52% in favo of team one. Now all players are in platinum ranks when for some reason team 1/player 1 loses this match. He will not lose a lot of points because the game will try to push him towards Ascendent, player 6 will lose the most points because he is near his rank and should preform better and the odds are in is his favor player 3 won’t lose much because is above his expectation. This is the sbmm affecting the point system before the match outcome. Now we will look when this works against you as a player. For example your player 2 and your in the race for Acendent. When you are in adept and your cr score is 140 the game will acknowledge that you’re in your supposed bracket now when you go into a game where the odds are in your favo to win % wise and you lose that game. The game will deduct a sick amount of points near to 200. Just to make sure you will remain in your supposed bracket. And other wise when you have favo % and you win you will get as little as 50 points. This is all dependent on these mm parameters. This gives the player the illusion of they can improve. But only against bungie mm parameters which are set in stone. Aka beating a dead horse. But bungie is notrius for the cr score, and not changing it. You can do this calculation for you’re self. Go into comp/qp and lose a redicules amount of games. And you will see that there api will not change you’re cr score. The simple fact is that this would cost resources and we all know bungie PvP is not monitizable

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        • All these threads confuse “predicted” outcomes with “actual” outcomes…. Everytime

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        • TL;DR. 50% win ratio in comp means you're in your proper division. Anything greater and you're bloating your KD, and will be considered a booster. Anything less and you might want to stop playing shooters. It's in casual playlists where the 50% win ratio doesn't matter as much, yet you should still always try to keep it balanced. A properly balanced game maintains both win ratios and KD in a team.

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        • Well written post. I too feel the win/loss dynamic... I feel like I stay around 6k comp points haha.

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        • 1% player here. I cant say anything but bravo dude. Everything here hit the nail on the head. I have a trending post rn about the same thing, but a first person account of it that admittedly is not as well mannered as yours. Happy there are others that truly want to be better and understand that its not the fault of the best players that things are as bad as they are. First thing I got was a bunch of comments and dms with nothing but hate from the lower tier players because the same people that cry that they're getting stomped are the ones bungie listen too and we get left in the dirt. Hope you have a good day, and that you get out of matchmaking hell along with us 🤙.

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          • I feel like the exact person you are explaining. that is straight facts there I felt every sentence 👏🏻 Wish they would improve it. Make it more pleasant for us people who are trying to climb ranks.. I do feel like I can spend an hour or two going win, lose,win,lose,win,win,lose,lose sometimes with high 20s kills and losing…

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          • Anyone who thinks forced losses aren’t a thing has never spent days and days of only playing comp as a solo player. Years ago on a different account, I was in the same boat. I was really enjoying my build at the time, and got sucked into grinding for Unbroken. I’d streak for 3 or more games, then lose 1 or 2. This process repeated all the way to the end. It became fairly predictable actually. It made me realize that caring too much about Destiny’s PVP experience is like pissing in the wind. So I’m happy to stay “broken” these days.

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          • Your assumption is wrong. A 50% win rate is not enforced, so your question is flawed. There are plenty of players who have had very high win rates and very low win rates.. Even when the matchmaking used stronger SBMM than now.

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              RealDerpPerks
              RealDerpPerks

              aka Hitachi nr83a2 - old

              Just because I’m a god tier player doesn’t mean I should be punished to a forced loss. So dumb that’s why no one plays this game.

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            • [quote]For all its flaws, if you go to Halo Infinite, so many of these problems are solved, if you go back as far as halo 2, you can see these problems solved by bungie. Halo infinite, shows the rank of every player, it shows the relative ranks of both teams, and you can see very clearly the raltionship between player skill, player rank, and what it is like to play that player in game. If Im geting wrecked and then I see that the player that I just couldnt beat is onyx (the top rank) I immediately think ok I get it I have to improve. And what you never see in halo ranked, despite it having a much lower player population than destiny, is a game where an onyx player is in a silver lobby, they place them in onyx, because the goal is to rank people correctly, not trap them in a frustrating grind.[/quote] Here's in lies the problem. Bungie, and other studios moved away from this. They went into coddling players instead of ranking them. Why do almost no FPS games have kills or deaths available at the tap of a button when you pull up the scoreboard anymore? Why did so many games move to hiding ranks and mmr? Why did battlefield 2042 get rid of the scoreboard? Everything moved to "efficiency" because you have to try and pad bad players stats to make them feel good. A .3kd player might have a .8 efficiency so they feel better. You hide ranks so bad players don't have their wood tier badge displayed for the world to see. They like you said they match for grind not skill and they can more effectively hide that by hiding as much from players as possible

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              • Modern shooters like Destiny and CoD have rigged matchmaking. It's blatantly obvious that the system is trying to hand pick the teams to force a predetermined outcome. And although there's no official proof, there's plenty of video evidence to suggest that there is even hidden game mechanics to nerf you mid match when you are playing too good or buff the team who's losing by a lot. Ever engage in a gunfight and seemingly lose all aim assist like you're attempting to fire at a teammate, almost as if the reticle is fighting you? Ever have a high kd in a match and then all of a sudden die 6 times in a row to players who are negative? There are so many examples of the game trying to manipulate the results. The reason is that if a bad player lost a majority of their gunfights and matches, they would stop playing the game entirely. And that hurts the overall 'engagement' and cosmetics sales. Does anyone remember Destiny 1 crucible where the absolute worst players would get an exotic at the end of a match, and the top player would get absolutely nothing? Same principle. I don't take pvp seriously anymore in these modern games because of bs like this. It's no longer about matching players of equal skill, and may the best team win. It's about Timmy Nothumbs being given his participation trophy. It's about manipulating the win/loss records so casuals don't uninstall.

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                • No such thing as 50% win-ratio, according to Bungie.

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                • I think a lot of people have just been told, an subsequently accepted, that there's a forced 50% win rate.

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                • You post is not correct. Win ratio does hardly even contribute to skill based matchmaking. I lose allot of matches (win ratio around 30%, started at 15%) and still end up against sweatbags with a kda between 2.0/3.0 (like myself) So you were floating in the wrong direction with this enormous post

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                • You need a fourth option. 4. I don’t care, PvP should not form a large or important part of what Destiny is!

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                • That's one of my problems with Destiny 2 PvP - It's so inconsistent. It seems almost impossible to "learn what strategies beat you". You play a match against a team and beat them 150 - 120, the teams don't switch, you play the same, and the next match they mercy you.

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                • The current competitive mm systems in place for rank system games is different you can’t compare it to previous solutions or implementations. The issue is simple destiny works on a combat rating (cr)for 500 to 2500 combat rating system not a select few are reaching the high end of 2200 and up. Now all your post can be fix by showing players what cr they have and if you want to reach a higher cr you need to heet ppl with a higher cr score. On a best out of 3 games. But the game has a think where you are fight the team to beat your own cr score. And no way bungie is gonna reinvest resources into a dead PvP game to readjust cr score not only that the cr score rarely changes within destiny. So if your asking for a ranking system that will show you where you are. You don’t even need to play competitive you can look your rank up in 3e website and accept that your rank will be accourding to you’re cr score. And you don’t even have to play. To add a note. The cr score doenst go up and down. For example I have friends who have a 2100 rating. And they are punishment is so hard they can’t step into qp without doing a 1 v 6. So they tryde lowering there cr rating to have a little fun in qp. But even having a negative kd or loosing 25 games strait the cr score will remain the same. This has given me the idea that when given out it doesn’t change. Aka if bungie is now willing to let you improve why improve

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                • Edited by Animal Mother: 4/24/2025 11:27:29 PM
                  Before I read further I’d like to know your thoughts on comp having control. Clash is perfect for comp - it’s kill or be killed - in control it’s literally hold the zone. That’s fine if I was in a fireteam and for fireteams it’s an easy W. But as a solo player I lose 80+% of control matches. Objection based gameplay like full on control has no place in 3v3 in my opinion. If they want to make it like trials then fine, survival in comp would be fine with me.

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                  • My last assessment match for this season was a -blam!- example of this. My team: -Me (experienced d2 player) -Literal new light player still wearing leveling gear -Player who took 3 year break and came back this season. Enemy team: -Godslayer -Conquer -Glorious (was already placed with Redrix equipped) I single handedly got half the kills and we somehow won, I think because they got overly confident and kept rushing into 2v1 situations.

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